Over the last 24 hours, the unexpected happened. The Wagner Group, Putin’s favorite paramilitary group, has stopped fighting in Ukraine, and begun fighting in Russia. This is not linked to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, but instead linked to internal issues within Moscow's military leadership and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group. Recently, the Daily Mail has reported that a new message surfaced on the Wagner Group’s Telegram Channel, with the message allegedly stating “'Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”

For nearly a whole decade, the Wagner Group has been active in many conflicts, mainly in Africa in Moscow-Backed conflicts, as well as Syria and Ukraine. The first conflict it partook in was the 2014 Crimean seizure, and it seems like the last one may be the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Currently, the paramilitary group has been moving towards Moscow, fighting with the Russian military on its way there. 

Tensions have regularly been high between Prigozhin and Russian MOD (Ministry of Defense) leadership. Even as the Wagner Group followed Russian orders, there was some discourse as internal tensions rose. In May, Prigozhin released a video in which a Russian commander admits to ordering a strike on a truck carrying Wagner Group troops. It is worth noting that the man seemed to have a broken nose in the video and apologized to the Wagner Group.

Over the course of the last two months, Prigozhin has become more vocal against Russian MOD leadership, while never attacking Putin himself. He had stated on multiple occasions that Moscow was sending untrained men to him as soldiers and that fighting between Prigozhin’s men and the Russian Military had occurred due to poor communication. His statements had grown to another level during the major fighting in Bakhmut, where he alleged that Moscow stopped sending his men ammo. 

These statements continued, and it is this that seems to have pushed Prigozhin  to attack the Russian MOD on the field. The Wagner Group drove into Rostov-on-Don, where many military command buildings are located, and seized many of the buildings. Latest reports show that the Wagner Group is moving North, while Prigozhin has said that he stayed in Rostov-on-Don. As of writing this, the Wagner Group hasn't reached Moscow yet. 

Update 1 (23:00 Local):

At around 20:30 local time, the first announcement came from both Yevgeny Prigozhin and Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. As news came in that Putin left Moscow, the leader of the Wagner Group announced an annulment of his prior statements and called his convoys to turn away back to Ukraine.

This decision was made due to Lukashenko calling Prigozhin to try and negotiate, with Putin’s backing. While the exact terms are n0t public at the moment, one can predict that assurances were made to the Wagner Group to guarantee loyalty in future conflicts. 

The news came in after hours of small recurring updates that showed airstrikes and small instances of fighting on the road towards Moscow, with confirmed reports of multiple Russian helicopters shot down and strikes on the convoys. Flight trackers were reporting many oligarchs and private jets leaving Moscow, as well as prices for flights to international cities skyrocketing.

As the dust settles, there seems to be no clear benefit to this 24 hour scare, with the exception of a slight lull in the fighting in Ukraine as Wagner troops left the area. However, this slight scruple has shown that tensions in and around Moscow are still rising, and won’t stop until a clear agreement is reached. 

There does seem to be any statement from the Russian MOD at the moment, but Putin has announced that no penalty will be given to the Wagner Group or Prigozhin. It is clear that both Putin and Prigozhin need each other, as the Russian army is ineffective in all conflicts without a strong paramilitary group like the Wagner Group, and Prigozhin needs Russian support as the West hates the Wagner group and has labeled it a terrorist group or hate group.

As it is at the moment, the next few hiccups in this story will most likely be linked to either a Russian MOD response or a meeting with laid out terms to keep the Wagner Group fighting in Ukraine, and not Russia.